Lizard's Rant

Let’s say you could have any four living basketball players signatures on one card. If you’re a fan under 40 years old, odds are you’d wish for a card signed by Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Kobe, and LeBron. Well, it’s your lucky day. Your wish has been granted. A 1-of-1 07/08 UD Black Basketball card with the aforementioned cut signatures has surfaced on eBay. The auction ends on March, 23, and you can place your bid for the low low price of $10,500 (as of the time of this writing).

If I was buying this card, I’d have just one question for the seller: what’s the deal with the pink background on all of the pictures bro? Bad, bad choice.
Thanks to Nick over on About.com for the heads up on this one.

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

The Lakers have been red hot, and Kobe Bryant’s rookie cards have been achieving value levels not seen for a few years. His 96-97 Finest RC has been inching up since the beginning of the season, averaging a TAC of $15.66 in November, $16.59 in December, $17.03 in January and $22.11 in February. So far in March, we’re seeing it’s biggest jump yet, with an average TAC of $33.01 (with a high of $45). They’re saying that this year might be Kobe’s chance to finally win the MVP award. I guess collectors would agree, based on the current market. His 96-97 Topps Chrome RC is averaging $171.75 this month, up from $158.80 in February. His 96-97 E-X RC can be found in the $35-40 TAC range. Kobe is a lock for the HOF, and is the best all-around player in the game. He was a part of the last Lakers dynasty, winning 3 straight Championships from ‘00 through ‘02, and has a great chance to be a part of another one over the next few years.

The Celtics’ big three’s top rookie cards have been selling at near-season lows in March. Kevin Garnett’s 95-96 Finest RC is averaging $35.62, down from $39.04 last month, and way off of it’s high in November of $54.25. Ray Allen’s 96-97 Topps Chrome RC is averaging $10.07, down from $12.89 last month, and it’s season-high of $14.60 in January. Paul Pierce’s 98-99 SP Authentic RC #’d 3500 is averaging $22.25, down from $23.33 last month, and it’s season-high of $29.94 in January. Boston still has the best record in the league (4.5 games ahead of the #2 Pistons), and I expect all three of these stars’ cards to start to rise once again when the playoffs get underway (if not sooner). Now might be a good time to buy.

Leandro Barbosa has remained undervalued in the hobby for a while now. His cards got a little hot last season, but couldn’t sustain their value. Barbosa is probably the best 6th man in the West (and 2nd in the league, after the Bulls’ Ben Gordon). His 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1999 has been lingering in the $13-16 TAC range all season, after peaking out in 06-07 at around $25. His 03-04 Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1250 can be found in the $9-12 TAC range. Both of these rookie cards, along with his 03-04 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #’d 250 (which averaged $184 last month), contain his extended signature (other base rookies have his “LB” or “LB #17″ sig). Look for Barbosa to give the Suns the added boost they’ll need to make a run for the playoffs, as we approach the final month of the season.

Utah’s Deron Williams & New Orleans’ Chris Paul have made a great showing this season, leading their respective teams to success. Williams is averaging 19.1 ppg & 10.3 apg, up from 16.2 ppg & 9.3 apg last season, and has improved his FG%, 3PT% & FT%. He’s led the Jazz’s rally from a record of 16-16 on 12/29, to their current 42-22, putting them in the fourth seed in the West. All of his key rookie cards are on the rise this month, with his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1299 selling for around $48 ($42.50 last month), his 05-06 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 750 for $74 ($61 last month), and his 05-06 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #’d 99 for $749 ($693 last month).

Paul is averaging 21.3 ppg & 11.0 apg, up from 17.3 ppg & 8.9 apg, and has also improved in all of his shooting %’s. His Hornets have been more consistent than the Jazz throughout the year, but have basically ended up in the same place, occupying the fifth seed. We’ve seen a big jump in value for his 05-06 SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1299. It’s averaging $121.25 this month, up from $82.71 in February. His 05-06 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 750 has actually gone down, averaging $116.67, down from $136.76. Expect to pay between $1000-1100 for his 05-06 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #’d 99.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

For the past 6 years, Pau Gasol was considered the Grizzlies’ franchise player. Then, on February 1st, he was traded to the Lakers in a deal that was considered the steal of the season. I guess the team recognized the talent that they had acquired over the past year or so, and realized that they could build their team around players like Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic and Hakim Warrick (all of whom earn significantly less than Gasol’s $13+ million salary) instead of around just one player.

Gay, now in his sophomore season, has really stepped up his game, averaging 20 ppg & 6.1 rpg, up from 10.8 ppg & 4.5 rpg, in just about 10 minutes more of playing time per game. In January, most of his key rookie cards saw significant increases in value versus December. His 06-07 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1199 jumped from an average TAC price of $28.30 to $33.25, his SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 299 went from $30.07 to $41.25, and his Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Patch RC #’d 150 went from $32.72 to $56. Since the Gasol trade, Gay’s cards have leveled off, probably signifying that collectors are waiting to see if Gay can lead the team to some wins in his new role, which might be necessary in order for him to elevate to the next level of hobby stature.

Milicic has finally found a situation in which he can be the starting center (unless the Grizzlies mistakenly start Kwame Brown instead!), after spending his first 4+ seasons as a reserve. Now we can finally see if he really did deserve the #2 overall pick in the star-studded 03-04 draft. His 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 750 & SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 500 have been selling for around $20 TAC recently. Overall, he’s only averaging 6.6 ppg & 5.9 rpg this season, but in games where he’s played at least 30 minutes, those numbers go up to 10.3 ppg & 8.7 rpg. I think that Milicic’s key rookie cards do have some room for growth. At only 22 years old, he has plenty of time to become a star (or at least a semi-star) center.

Warrick probably has the biggest potential out of all of them for a jump in value. Last season I wrote about Warrick’s potential, and said that he would probably have to move to another team in order to truly shine. But now, with Gasol gone, opportunity has been knocking. Before the trade, his best month this season was January, in which he averaged 8.2 ppg & 3.8 rpg in 17.9 mpg. In his last 10 games (since the Gasol trade), he’s been averaging 15.1 ppg & 6.6 rpg in 28.9 mpg (20.8 ppg & 8.6 rpg in 35.6 mpg in his last 5 games). Warrick’s key rookies are still selling for well below BV, but my guess is that they won’t stay at those levels for long. I saw one of his 05-06 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #’d 225 sell for $57 TAC on 2/22. I picked up one of his SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1299 last year for around $5 TAC (and am still holding on to it!).

Memphis could be an up-and-coming team in the next five years. Their young line-up may just contain some of the future big stars of the hobby.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

For years, the big three that are now leading the Celtics to the best record in the NBA, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen & Paul Pierce, have been pretty much passed over in the hobby. Garnett toiled on a struggling T-Wolves squad, carrying the burden on his shoulders to lead the team in almost all statistical categories. Allen, who’s been one of the top sharpshooters in the league over the last decade, has also had the unfortunate luck of playing for mostly low-achieving teams. And the story isn’t much different for Pierce, who’s cards haven’t shown much signs of life since his rookie-year. Now that they’re all playing together on this rare & high-profile three-star team, their key rookie cards appear to be finally peaking collectors’ interest.

Garnett’s 95-96 Finest RC almost immediately exploded in value at the beginning of the season, averaging around $54 in November, and even reaching highs in the $80’s range. The market cooled off quite a bit since then, but his best rookie has still been selling in the $37-48 range over the last couple of weeks; about double what it was selling for not too long ago while he was with Minnesota. Garnett isn’t putting up the numbers that he used to in previous seasons, but that should be expected now that he has two top-tier scorers by his side.

Allen’s 96-97 Topps Chrome RC started the season off really slowly, with Garnett receiving the bulk of the attention. After averaging between $8-10 through November & December, it finally started to experience some gains in January. It’s averaging around $14-15 this month, but I saw two of them sell for $20.50 & $25 TAC mid-month. His 96-97 Skybox Autographics Auto has been selling in the $60’s range for the black ink version, and around $140 for the blue ink this month.

Pierce’s top rookie, his 98-99 SP Authentic RC #’d 3500, has been a solid seller in the $25-35 range this season. His 98-99 SPx Finite RC #’d 2500 has been getting increased hobby interest (it’s his most limited #’d rookie). It’s averaging $13.50 this month, up from $7.60 last month. You can find the Radiance parallel #’d 1500 for around the same price. I saw two of his elusive 98-99 Topps Autograph (his only rookie-year auto) sell separately last month for $67 & $36 TAC. This would be a nice card to get, if you can find one.

Although the Celtics have been looking less untouchable recently, losing 5 of their last 10 games (4 of which were against teams that they should’ve beaten), I expect them to still finish at or near the top of the East, and defeat the Pistons in the Conference finals. There’s still room for growth in all three of these stars’ rookie cards, so it’s still not too late to buy!

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

The Suns have one of best (if not THE best) offenses in the league. Their 109.4 ppg is tops in the NBA. So which player is most key to their awesome offense? Amare Stoudemire, the team’s leading scorer, averaged 18.6 ppg & 8.4 rpg with a FG% of .527 in November. In December, his numbers jumped to 24.6 ppg & 9.5 rpg with a FG% of .626. Why then are his key Auto rookie values down compared to the previous month? His benchmark 02-03 SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1500 averaged $43.74 in Dec, down from $56.75 in Nov, and his SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1999 averaged $48.85 in Nov, down from $53.93 in Nov. The reason, in a word, is Nash.

Is it coincidence that Stoudemire’s scoring & FG% rose the same month that Steve Nash’s assists-per-game increased from 10.9 in Nov to 14.1 in Dec? I think not. The general hobby population seems to be figuring out that the Phoenix offense is hugely dependent on its floor leader, Nash, rather than so heavily on the recipients of his masterful dishes. He is the dynamic element that drives the success (or lack there of) of this team. It’s been pretty obvious in the past when he’s missed any stretch of games. His hobby value seems to be at its best when he scores in the double digits, but keeps his emphasis on creating opportunities for others. Not when he’s the team’s leading scorer (as it should be for a point guard).

Nash’s 96-97 Topps Chrome RC averaged $25.85 in Nov & $27.93 in Dec, slowly climbing it’s way back up to the $30’s range that it reached last season. I saw one of his coveted 96-97 Skybox Autographics Auto’s sell last month for $228.72. I would imagine that it would fetch a price in the $300’s range now.

I’m not saying that Stoudemire isn’t a good player, but just that it’s hard to tell how good of a player someone is when they have the best point guard in the league running the offense. Something to think about when making buying decisions, especially for investment purposes.

Note: All stats are through 12/30/07.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

Carlos Boozer, Utah’s star power forward, is averaging 25 ppg (#1 for PF in NBA), 11.5 rpg (#1 PF), 57.3 FG% (#2 PF) and has 18 double-doubles (#1 PF - #2 overall in NBA behind Dwight Howard with 20). Yet, despite his great performances (and his team’s decent record thus far), Boozer’s key rookie cards haven’t experienced much boost in market value.

All four of Boozer’s base Auto rookies from 02-03, Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy #’d 999, Finest Auto #’d 999, SP Authentic Auto #’d 1500 & SPx Auto/Jsy #’d 1999, have remained pretty steady sellers in the $20-25 TAC range over the last two months (pretty much the same level they ended last season at). If I had to predict which of these four would be the first to make the move upwards, it would be his SPx RC. The SPx brand has historically exemplified better value retention & growth than the other three. One lucky buyer bought one on 12/11 for $18.60 TAC. I wouldn’t expect see sales at that level anymore.

Boozer is a veteran star on an up-and-coming Jazz team, he’s playing with possibly the best point guard in the West (not named Steve Nash), and he has a fairly limited number of Auto rookie cards on the market, all of which have room to grow. Sounds like a buying opportunity to me!

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

Many people consider Dwight Howard the best “big man” in the league, and his Magic, off to a 12-3 start, are the only team thus far to beat the new-and-improved Celtics this season. I think that one big reason for Orlando’s success (other than Howard) is the addition of veteran Rashard Lewis. Lewis joined the Magic this season after spending 9 seasons in Seattle, where he had a career average of 16.6 ppg. Although he was a solid starter with the Sonics, last season he missed a good chunk of games due to injury. If he can stay healthy & continue to score like he has (19.8 ppg), he has a chance to gain some hobby attention, especially now that he’s playing alongside one of the hottest players out there, and for a team that has a chance to be a contender.

Lewis probably has one of shortest rookie card lists for all the 98-99 class. He only has 4 base rookies and 2 parallels, with no Auto’s. His highest BV base rookie is his 98-99 SP Authentic #’d 3500 ($40), but his most limited base is his 98-99 SPx Finite #’d 2500 ($20). Both cards can be bought for less than BV.

Right now, there are very few of Lewis’ cards listed on auction. I think that collectors are waiting to see if he can continue to do well in his new setting, and if the Magic can continue their success as a team.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

For years people have been talking about how there’s a shortage of skilled “big men” in the NBA, so players like Michael Olowokandi & Kwame Brown (who have yet to impress in the NBA) get taken at the top of the draft. Over the last few seasons, there’s been a new crop of young big men trickling into the league, and making their presence felt. In this post, we’ll be taking a look at the big men in the Western Conference that are age 25 or under, and currently averaging at least 20 mpg. Of the eight that meet this requirement, I think that these three have the best chance to attract the hobby’s interest long-term.

• Andrew Bynum (LAL, 20 y.o., 7-0, 275 lbs) – Bynum has greatly improved since he was drafted out of high school in 05-06. He’s still coming off the bench, but his minutes are increasing along with his contributions. I’m guessing that he’ll be posting double-doubles on a regular basis when he starts playing 30+ mpg. Last season we saw his 05-06 SPA Auto RC #’d 1299 reach the $40-50 TAC range at its peak. So far this season its averaging around $25. His SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1499, which reached the $50’s range last year, is also going for around $25 this month. Bynum is definitely a “buy-and-hold” player. Personally, I prefer his “A Bynum” sig over his abbreviated “AB#17” variation. Of his base rookies, the longer sig can be found on his Exquisite Collection, Ultimate Collection & SP Authentic. He also has an “A Bynum #17” variation, but I’ve only seen it on inserts, not any of his base rookies.

• Al Jefferson (MIN, 22 y.o., 6-10, 256 lbs) – Jefferson, in only his 4th NBA season, has already emerged as a hobby standout. He broke out last season, and was rewarded with more playing time. We can expect him to continue to improve and become one of the dominant 2 or 3 big men in the West. Unfortunately, from a team standpoint, the young T-Wolves are probably still several seasons out from being a contender. His 04-05 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1999 is a steady seller so far this month at around $40-46 TAC. If you want more bang for your buck, you can find his 04-05 Bowman Signature Auto/Jsy #’d 399 in the mid $20’s.

• Tyson Chandler (NO, 25 y.o., 7-1, 235 lbs) – Chandler, another straight-from-high-school phenom, has become one of the top rebounders in the league. Last year was his first full season as a starter, and he averaged 12.4 rpg. Unfortunately, the hobby doesn’t have much of a soft spot for players that don’t score much. I’m hoping that this season he’ll be able to get his scoring average up to around 15-17 ppg. That should be enough of a spark to get collectors to give Chandler a second look. His 01-02 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 250 (since there’s 3 versions, there’s actually 750 serial #’d Chandler base RC’s in that set) is selling in the $15-18 range this month. Since his prices are pretty low, I would go for his 01-02 Ultimate Collection Auto RC #’d 250. They’re pretty hard to find, but can still be had for a reasonable amount of money. His SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1525 can probably be found for less than $10.

One other, Amare Stoudemire, should probably be on this list too, but I excluded him out of concern about his injuries. So early in his career, and he’s already had major surgery on both of his knees. Though, I do think that he has a lot of skill, and hopefully he’ll have a long, healthy career going forward.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

The new NBA season is right around the corner, with some exciting new line-ups and players to prospect. Last season, we saw young players like Leandro Barbosa, Daniel Gibson, Kevin Martin and Al Jefferson start to break into hobby stardom, making the most of their increased minutes on the floor by supporting, and many times leading their teams to a higher level of performance. We also got to see some veteran players regain the spotlight, like Baron Davis leading his Warriors to a first-round playoff victory over the top-seeded Mavs, and Michael Redd (until he got injured) averaging a career-high 26.7 ppg for the sorrowful Bucks.

This season, I’m keeping my eye on Carmelo Anthony, who should surpass Dwayne Wade as the 03-04 #2-valued rookie. Anthony averaged 28.9 ppg last season, and continued to play well for Team USA thereafter. I expect him to be the top scorer in the West (or at least be in the top 3), and to lead the Nuggets to the playoffs. Melo’s cards have been undervalued for a while, and should see some increased hobby attention this season, and in seasons to come.

Another veteran to watch is Grant Hill. For years there was so much expectation on Hill, and all that followed was disappointment, due to chronic injuries. I think that he’s finally reached a point in his career where those expectations have been alleviated, and he can finally just focus on playing & staying healthy. He’s playing for the most exciting offensive team in the league, and looking good so far through the preseason. Hill seems like a good guy, and I hope that his hobby status can finally be lifted back up to star level where he deserves to be.

Two of the younger players that I think are ready to break out are Josh Childress & Travis Outlaw. Childress has been a solid support player for the Hawks (usually coming off the bench). He averaged 13 ppg & 6.1 rpg last season. He’s a good all-around player who will continue to improve as he gets more playing time. The Blazers have been bringing Travis Outlaw along slowly, increasing his minutes little by little each season. Their patience seems to be paying off, as his scoring, rebounding & assists have increased in all 4 of his NBA seasons. With Greg Oden out, the Blazers will have to rely on their other talent to carry them, and Outlaw should be able to benefit from that need.

Of course we can’t forget the new & improved Celtics. Boston should dominate the East, and anything short of a conference title will be a disappointment. Now might be a good time pick up Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce & Ray Allen’s top rookie year cards. I like Garnett’s classic 95-96 Finest RC, Pierce’s 98-99 Topps Auto and Allen’s 96-97 Skybox Autographics & Emerald Auto.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!

Apparently not very (popular, that is). If you plan on being in Cleveland next Friday for the National Collector’s Convention Topps is giving you the “once in a lifetime” chance to meet Oden, have your photo taken with him, and receive a special autographed Allen & Ginter card limited to 100. Oh, you also get “free” hors d’oeuvres and drinks included in the $1,000 ticket, which is of course itself limited to 100.

So why isn’t Oden very popular? Well tickets went on sale at noon today and it’s now 4:35 PM EST on July 25 and there are apparently tickets still available (I checked out to the point where I could enter my credit card info and the cart never stopped me from proceeding, which of course I did not do).

In a hobby where people will unconsciously lay out $500+ for a pack of cards, I’m shocked that Topps couldn’t even sell 100 of these tickets. I assumed it would be the type of thing that would have it’s own secondary market - people would be selling the tickets on eBay for $2k! I guess not. I wonder why…is it that no one likes Oden? Or that no one actually goes to the National? Or that people are fed up with over-paying and are revolting against Topps (as much as I wish this was it, I highly doubt it)?