Lizard's Rant

Guest post by Cardcollectingrambler from Break Open Another Box!

For the past 6 years, Pau Gasol was considered the Grizzlies’ franchise player. Then, on February 1st, he was traded to the Lakers in a deal that was considered the steal of the season. I guess the team recognized the talent that they had acquired over the past year or so, and realized that they could build their team around players like Rudy Gay, Darko Milicic and Hakim Warrick (all of whom earn significantly less than Gasol’s $13+ million salary) instead of around just one player.

Gay, now in his sophomore season, has really stepped up his game, averaging 20 ppg & 6.1 rpg, up from 10.8 ppg & 4.5 rpg, in just about 10 minutes more of playing time per game. In January, most of his key rookie cards saw significant increases in value versus December. His 06-07 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 1199 jumped from an average TAC price of $28.30 to $33.25, his SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 299 went from $30.07 to $41.25, and his Hoops Hot Prospects Auto/Patch RC #’d 150 went from $32.72 to $56. Since the Gasol trade, Gay’s cards have leveled off, probably signifying that collectors are waiting to see if Gay can lead the team to some wins in his new role, which might be necessary in order for him to elevate to the next level of hobby stature.

Milicic has finally found a situation in which he can be the starting center (unless the Grizzlies mistakenly start Kwame Brown instead!), after spending his first 4+ seasons as a reserve. Now we can finally see if he really did deserve the #2 overall pick in the star-studded 03-04 draft. His 03-04 SPx Auto/Jsy RC #’d 750 & SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 500 have been selling for around $20 TAC recently. Overall, he’s only averaging 6.6 ppg & 5.9 rpg this season, but in games where he’s played at least 30 minutes, those numbers go up to 10.3 ppg & 8.7 rpg. I think that Milicic’s key rookie cards do have some room for growth. At only 22 years old, he has plenty of time to become a star (or at least a semi-star) center.

Warrick probably has the biggest potential out of all of them for a jump in value. Last season I wrote about Warrick’s potential, and said that he would probably have to move to another team in order to truly shine. But now, with Gasol gone, opportunity has been knocking. Before the trade, his best month this season was January, in which he averaged 8.2 ppg & 3.8 rpg in 17.9 mpg. In his last 10 games (since the Gasol trade), he’s been averaging 15.1 ppg & 6.6 rpg in 28.9 mpg (20.8 ppg & 8.6 rpg in 35.6 mpg in his last 5 games). Warrick’s key rookies are still selling for well below BV, but my guess is that they won’t stay at those levels for long. I saw one of his 05-06 Exquisite Collection Auto/Patch RC #’d 225 sell for $57 TAC on 2/22. I picked up one of his SP Authentic Auto RC #’d 1299 last year for around $5 TAC (and am still holding on to it!).

Memphis could be an up-and-coming team in the next five years. Their young line-up may just contain some of the future big stars of the hobby.

Please check out my blog, Break Open Another Box!, for more of my ramblings!